Comment by Chris St John Cox, Platform Lead – Complex Site Decarbonisation at Energy Systems Catapult

It’s hard to take a long-term view to visualise how a Net Zero future should look. It can then be even harder to try to piece together the steps we need to take to get us there.

I’m reminded of what Henry Ford said:

“If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.”

Getting to Net Zero is not like developing a car, but we do need to boldly reimagine how we are going to decarbonise.

Our current approach to decarbonisation projects is piecemeal. Projects are delivered through different governance structures, contend with varying procurement routes, represent differing value for money, and deliver different outcomes. It’s hard work.

Like any early adoption curve, we’re learning from these projects, both in the public sector but as an industry. However, if we’re to meet national targets, we need to scale up and accelerate project delivery.

Meeting annual targets will need many more installation projects to be carried out, requiring:

• The public sector to clearly specify what it wants
• Funding to be available in a form that suits the technology
• Easy access to suppliers and the bulk purchase of products to keep costs low
• The manufacturing at scale of products in modular or repeatable sizes
• The building of a skilled supply chain for installing

With that in mind we can’t carry on delivering projects in the same way. We need a different approach that delivers at scale and pace. There are numerous challenges to resolve but many can be solved by grouping projects together.

Get creative

We are in an age where machine learning and generative AI can be put to work to help us identify, prioritise, and plan Net Zero projects. For example, we can use AI and machine learning to speed up initial triaging of sites.

Our InSite programme, which captures data on emissions, energy, and costs at NHS estates and schools, is identifying archetypes and decarbonisation pathways that can be adopted by typical public sector sites, with age, size, and use being factors. With this information public sector estates can be assessed, en masse, to prioritise sites and the types of decarbonisation measures to be progressed, avoiding the need to replace technology ahead of need and mitigating against stranded assets.

Being able to prioritise sites and projects is one part of a future system but there are other elements we need to do differently. A future vision for them could include:

Funding is provided matching technology business case – Diagnostic and prioritisation helps the public sector know what they should be asking for and enables appropriate funding for the technology or grouping of measures to be sought. The limitation of capital funding or grant funding needs to be expanded making different blending funding options available.

Regionally grouped procurement of groups of projects allow value for money and access to local contractors – Procurement of services can be for the technology type, to technology specific local contractors, who can install over multiple sites at scale benefiting the local economy.

Skills and capability get built through market demand – With contracts available local contractors will push to upskill themselves, driven by local demand and an opportunity to increase their revenue which they’ll not want to miss out on.

Manufacturers have sight of order book managing scale up investment risk – Manufacturers will have the foresight to understand how and when their products will be required, though the planning of grouped delivery. They can scale up manufacturing or know they will become a bottle neck.

Value for money is achieved – Price can be driven down by volume, with the typical cost for the installation of a given technology known.

When should we act?

Now. The supply chain for manufacturing and installation won’t support decarbonisation if we try to do everything at the last minute. We need to act and start planning now.