Nuclear Deployment scenarios to support assessment of future fuel cycles

This report commissioned by the National Nuclear Laboratory (NNL) documents the results of full UK energy system modelling undertaken to support assessment of future advanced nuclear fuel cycles.

The work has been performed as part of the Advanced Fuel Cycle Programme (AFCP) and will underpin future work in technology roadmapping and fuel cycle modelling.

NNL has worked with Energy Systems Catapult and LucidCatalyst to produce four nuclear deployment scenarios in a 2050 Net Zero UK energy mix using the whole energy system model known as Energy System Modelling Environment (ESME).

Key points

This extensive independent modelling represents an assessment of the potential role of nuclear in delivering Net Zero; the modelling fills a gap in publicly available data that is needed to understand the possible role and application of future advanced fuels and fuel cycles.

The energy system modelling reports are provided here in full with all assumptions and supporting data. The work considers the role of:

  • Conventional large reactors,
  • Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and Advanced Modular Reactors (AMRs) working alongside other low carbon energy technologies
  • Nuclear providing not only electricity but also heat and hydrogen, giving a range of nuclear deployment scenarios from 14 GWe to over 60 GWe in 2050.

The range of nuclear technologies and scope of potential deployment requires assessment of a range of fuel and fuel cycle options.

Research, development and demonstration (RD&D) technology advanced fuel cycle roadmaps will be published separately taking its input from this energy system modelling and the associated nuclear deployment scenarios outlined. In addition, detailed fuel cycle modelling – using the data generated from the energy system modelling – is planned using the NNL developed ORION modelling capability to outline, for example, uranium ore requirements, spent fuel volumes and storage requirements, and fabrication requirements for the scenarios.

It is hoped that this work will provide underpinning evidence for decision makers to inform future UK energy strategy and policy.

Read the Report

UK Energy System Modelling: Net Zero 2050 - Nuclear Deployment Scenarios to Support Assessment of Future Fuel Cycles

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