Comment by Rebecca Sweeney, Business Leader – Homes, at Energy Systems Catapult and Olivia Smalley, Head of Policy and Communications, at the Heat Pump Association

Meeting the UK’s legally binding Net Zero carbon emission reduction targets hinges on decarbonising heat in buildings. Accounting for 18% of all of the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions, fossil fuel heating must be replaced by electrified heating solutions like heat pumps – a proven, efficient, scalable low-carbon technology.

In 2020, the previous government set a target to install 600,000 heat pumps per year by 2028, increasing to 1.6 million per year by 2035. Encouragingly, consumer interest is growing, with nearly 100,000 heat pumps sold in the UK in 2024, representing a 63% increase from 2023. Government schemes, such as the Boiler Upgrade Scheme and Energy Company Obligation, are playing a key role in accelerating adoption. To sustain this momentum and meet future targets, the UK will need to continue expanding heat pump deployment, with a crucial focus on significantly growing a qualified, competent workforce.

The role of installers in accelerating heat pump deployment

Heat pump installers are responsible for the safe and efficient installation of heat pumps, ensuring they operate effectively and meet both performance and safety standards. High-quality installations are key to building consumer trust and accelerating demand through word-of-mouth recommendations. Installers are much more than technical operatives – they also serve as ambassadors for heat pumps, who will no doubt play a key role in communicating the benefits of the technology to consumers who are considering the switch from fossil fuel heating.

The heat pump workforce demand

In its 2024 Progress Report to Parliament, the Climate Change Committee also recognised the role of heat pump installers. Identifying the number of trained heat pump installers as an indicator of key enablers to the transition, they found that this has “not yet increased at the pace required and is significantly off track”.

With a pressing need to understand the scale of demand, the HPA conducted analysis in November 2024 on ‘Projecting the Future Heat Pump Workforce’. The findings show that to meet the previous government’s target of 600,000 heat pump installations annually by 2028, over 41,000 full-time roles will be needed across the whole heat pump workforce. This number will rise to 122,000 by 2035 to meet the target of 1.6 million heat pump installations per year. A large proportion of these roles will be heat pump installers who are expected to make up nearly half of the workforce by 2035.

Are training rates on track?

To reach these targets, the sector will need to ensure heat pump training rates are on track. The HPA’s recent data indicates positive momentum, with over 9,000 individuals completing a recognised heat pump qualification in 2024 – up 15% from 2023 levels.

However, to meet the target heat pump installation rates set out by the previous government, it’s estimated an additional 123,199 trained installers will be needed between 2023-2035. The current training rate of 9,062 individuals in 2024 shows that interest in obtaining skills in preparation for the transition is growing, and the sector is on track to have the trained workforce needed to install 600,000 heat pumps in 2028.

The sector has the capacity to deliver the training required – with HPA members having 260 UK-wide training locations with a total capacity of around 30,000 recognised heat pump course training places per year. This demonstrates the availability and provision of courses are not limiting factors, but the sector must maintain momentum to ensure training rates continue to grow in line with deployment.

Increasing activity rates

Despite positive trends in training rates, there is a concerning gap between those who have completed a recognised heat pump training qualification, and those entering the workforce to actively install heat pumps. HPA analysis shows a drop-off rate of 39%, meaning nearly four out of ten of those who complete training do not go on to install heat pumps straight away. This discrepancy between trained and active installers underscores the importance of not just training individuals, but ensuring they are motivated, confident and supported to enter the industry, and that adequate demand is there. This year, we’re working to understand the additional support provided by the sector to develop heat pump installer confidence and delivery following the successful completion of recognised heat pump training qualification, and how this can be enhanced to encourage installers to actively join the workforce.

Addressing barriers and encouraging participation

Appetite for training is growing, and government research identified that nearly 70% of heating installers would like to receive heat pump training but many are deterred by lack of consumer demand. Installers also highlighted the need for hands-on training and confidence in the future of the sector.

For the heat pump industry to meet its ambitious targets, it’s essential to ensure that those who complete training are motivated and supported to work in the field. This will require increased demand visibility and the creation of an attractive career path for installers. Government-led consumer awareness campaigns, alongside collaboration with the private sector to unlock innovative and attractive financing models, would drive demand and encourage more active participation in the industry and create a sustainable job market.

A skilled and diverse workforce

As demand for heat pump installations grows, so too does the need for a skilled and diverse workforce. Ensuring that talent comes from all backgrounds is essential, not only for meeting installation targets but also for strengthening consumer trust in the technology. Homeowners need to feel confident that heat pumps will keep their homes warm at an affordable cost, and having a well-trained, representative workforce can play a crucial role in building that trust.

A more diverse workforce brings multiple benefits. It helps ensure that installers better understand the needs of different households, including practical considerations such as language barriers and cultural preferences. It also increases the number of trained professionals available to meet demand, supporting the rapid scale-up of heat pump installations.

However, research conducted by the Catapult highlights three key areas where improvements are needed to attract and retain a more diverse workforce:

• Greater availability and awareness of fair job opportunities – ensuring that people from all backgrounds know about and can access careers in heat pump installation.
• The option to train and work flexibly – making it easier for those with caring responsibilities or other commitments to enter and stay in the industry.
• A healthy, inclusive working environment – fostering a sense of belonging and ensuring all installers feel valued and supported in their roles.

Providing clear pathways into the sector, such as funded apprenticeships and other support mechanisms, is essential for broadening access. Mentorship programmes, particularly for underrepresented groups such as women, can also help build confidence and support career progression. By investing in a workforce that reflects the diversity of the communities it serves, we can accelerate the heat pump rollout while ensuring that consumers have trust in both the technology and the people installing it.

Confidence, clarity and consistency

The success of the UK’s heat pump rollout depends on building a strong, active workforce of highly trained, competent installers who can deliver quality work and build consumer trust, helping to demonstrate that this technology can cost-effectively keep their homes warm.

To support this, decision-makers must provide greater clarity on long-term policy and support mechanisms to sustain demand and encourage investment in training. More installers need to be equipped with the right skills to meet this demand, and they must have confidence that there will be consistent, well-paid work in the sector. By ensuring stability, visibility, and quality training, we can create a workforce that is both resilient and representative, driving forward the UK’s transition to low-carbon heating. With the sector set for significant growth over the next decade, all those involved have a part to play in ensuring a career as a heat pump installer is appealing, fulfilling, and accessible to anyone interested in joining the industry.