Scotland’s world-leading ambitions to decarbonise by 2045, place it at the forefront of a Just Transition towards ‘a fairer greener future for all’. As the journey to Net Zero gains pace, the Scottish Government and ClimateXChange (CXC) commissioned Energy Systems Catapult to construct a set of country specific scenarios that would inform the energy, social, and economic policies required to achieve the interim 2030 and the 2045 decarbonisation goals.

As a country with rich natural resources, the project aimed to capture the broader benefits unique to Scotland and develop whole system energy scenarios. This would help the Scottish Government understand their future path, support its Draft Energy Strategy and Just Transition Plan and bring stakeholders and the Scottish people along on the next stages of the journey.

The Challenge

Scotland has unique opportunities in energy thanks to world-class research centres, renewable energy resources and a history of leadership in energy project development. Scotland’s Net Zero targets also mean that energy policy decision-making needs to consider a range of possible future pathways to meet climate ambitions.

Consideration must be given to the traditional energy sectors, such as oil, gas, and petrochemicals, and how their role might change as Scotland transitions to a net zero economy. But, new ways of heating homes, transporting goods and people, and powering industry will only be possible with innovations in areas such as electrification, carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS), and hydrogen. These will need to be supported by new infrastructure, suitable policy and a well-trained workforce armed with the skills necessary for the transition.

From a Governmental perspective, energy scenario planning can support strategic decision making in relation to critical infrastructure. Robust planning is essential, as is the need to identify no/low regrets technologies required to achieve the future pathways

The Innovation

The Catapult delivered three Scotland-specific whole energy system scenarios nested in the wider UK energy system, relevant to the Scottish energy sector. These scenarios were structured within a logical framework, and informed by stakeholder engagement, a review of existing literature (including Energy Systems Catapult’s existing research), and robust evidence gathering.

Insights were gathered through qualitative narratives and quantitative technical analysis using the Catapult’s proprietary Energy Systems Modelling Environment (ESME) model. The Catapult were able to leverage whole system market insights and analysis to provide independent final scenarios and detailed narratives. Furthermore, the Catapult translated what the modelling means practically and provided a pathway for future development.

The Solution

ESME also accounts for non-energy emissions such as land use, which is crucial in ensuring a coherent economy-wide Net Zero scenario.

Impact

Next Steps 

The key observations from the modelling results suggest:

The debate in Scotland has been enhanced with stakeholders across industry, academia, consultancies, the energy networks, and local authorities. All of which are engaged and talking about the next phases of the journey.

Whole Systems Modelling

Independent and technology-agnostic whole systems modelling to help design the future energy system and unlock innovation.

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