Independent and technology-agnostic, whole systems modelling helping you to decarbonise heavy goods vehicles

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Accelerating road freight to Net Zero

ESME Road Freight is a UK techno-economic model that uses detailed powertrain data and operating profiles to assess the role low- and zero-emission HGVs could play in the future of the sector. The model can be used to explore vehicle total cost of ownership, future fleet composition, tailpipe emissions, energy demands and infrastructure requirements.

The model represents the UK HGV fleet based on vehicle specifications and duty cycles. It can then build out the market, tailpipe emissions, energy demands and infrastructure requirements over a given time. This helps identify how the sector may respond under various scenarios and what would be needed to support a transition towards zero emission vehicles.

By using cost and performance data, ESME Road Freight provides insights into cost-effective pathways to decarbonise UK road freight. The model has been developed with a range of stakeholders in the industry. It is therefore able to incorporate real-world considerations for both fleet and chargepoint operators.

Typical daily demand profiles and infrastructure requirements are built up across different kinds of locations, for example depot and en-route. The model can also be used alongside our energy system wide ESME model to understand wider energy system impacts.

Government

Understand operators’ decision parameters and behaviours to better inform policy interventions. Assess how policy decisions can support freight operators and infrastructure roll-out that will facilitate carbon-free powertrains.

Industrial and commercial operators

Explore how vehicle uptake and rollout of infrastructure could scale in the UK. Explore the potential size of the market and understand how it might respond to new and emerging technology and business model innovations.

Network operators

Model electric HGV charging demand to support the development of network infrastructure requirements and to target effective investment.

Case Studies

Whole-system scenario modelling

Energy Systems Catapult was part of the eFREIGHT 2030 consortium, funded by DfT and Innovate UK under the Zero Emission HGV and Infrastructure Demonstrator (ZEHID) programme. The outputs from the ESME Road Freight model were used to compile a list of recommendations for different stakeholders in decarbonising the UK HGV fleet. These recommendations were reported in The Road Ahead: National system impacts of HGV decarbonisation.

This consortium included a mix of industry leading fleet operators, chargepoint providers, and vehicle manufacturers. The depth of knowledge within the consortium was drawn upon to update the assumptions and data within the ESME Road Freight model.

Several scenarios were agreed with the consortium, focussing on different incentive packages for zero-emission HGVs as well as looking at how the time and location of charging may impact the wider infrastructure requirements.

The expanded functionality of ESME Road Freight was used to simulate fleet purchasing choices out to 2050 based on a range of incentives for zero-emission HGVs. Our cost and performance data was used to estimate the total cost of ownership for a set of powertrains across different vehicle categories. Then the wider system and policy implications were assessed, resulting in a set of recommendations for driving uptake of zero-emission HGVs.

The work also analysed charging infrastructure and energy demands for the zero-emission HGV transition, based on the chosen scenarios. By looking across depot and en-route locations, the impacts of increased en-route charging on fleet operations and infrastructure requirements were assessed. ESME Road Freight also created possible energy demand profiles, allowing us to look at different managed charging solutions and the wider network implications.

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