The National Nuclear Laboratory commissioned Energy Systems Catapult and LucidCatalyst to carry out extensive UK Energy system modelling to deliver a crucial assessment of the potential role of nuclear in delivering Net Zero.

The modelling fills a gap in publicly available data as part of the Advanced Fuel Cycle Programme (AFCP), with the Catapult produced four nuclear deployment scenarios in a 2050 Net Zero UK energy mix using the whole energy system model known as the Energy System Modelling Environment (ESME).

The work considered the role of conventional large reactors, Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and Advanced Modular Reactors (AMRs) working alongside other low carbon energy technologies.

It considered the role of nuclear providing not only electricity but also heat and hydrogen, giving a range of nuclear deployment scenarios from 14 GWe to over 60 GWe in 2050. The range of nuclear technologies and scope of potential deployment requires assessment of a range of fuel and fuel cycle options.

This energy system modelling and the associated nuclear deployment scenarios will support R&D technology roadmaps for advanced fuel and fuel cycles being planned by NNL, for example, uranium ore requirements, spent fuel volumes and storage requirements, and fabrication requirements for the scenarios.

It is hoped that this work will provide underpinning evidence for decision makers to inform future UK energy strategy and policy.

Find out more: Nuclear Deployment scenarios to support assessment of future fuel cycles.

Nuclear for Net Zero was a report delivered as part of the Innovating to Net Zero  programme – providing a techno-economic assessment of the potential roles and contribution of nuclear energy in supporting a range of decarbonisation pathways modelled for the UK to achieve Net Zero carbon emissions targets by 2050.

The analysis using our Energy System Modelling Environment strengthened the case for:

• 10GW of new Generation III+ nuclear power stations beyond Hinkley Point C as a low regrets option.
• Advanced Gen IV high-temperature nuclear plants coupled with hydrogen production technology – able to switch between power generation and efficient hydrogen to supply industry, plus heavy road transport and marine freight.
• Small Modular light water Reactors (SMR) deployed with city-scale District Heating Networks – to supply cost-effective low carbon heat for urban homes and businesses.

The analysis also found while wind, in particular offshore wind, now looks the key technology for decarbonising power in the coming decades, trying to meet Net Zero without any new nuclear would put the target at risk unnecessarily and potentially make the shift to a low carbon economy more expensive, the report found.

While Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) was also an important technology, partly because of its ability to be used in multiple applications – including hydrogen production, while bioenergy with CCS could counter the residual emissions from aviation and livestock.

Energy Systems Catapult in partnership with the Energy Technologies Institute published the Nuclear Cost Drivers (ETI NCD) report in 2020, which demonstrates a credible path for nuclear energy to become a competitive Net Zero solution alongside renewables.

The study provides evidence that an intentional and determined commitment to proven best practices around design standardisation combined with timely and effective programmatic sequencing – including building multiple units on a single site – can deliver highly cost-competitive nuclear new build.

Global experience shows how commitment to a standardised nuclear program can sustain the learning curve and trigger a virtuous circle of economic performance as supply chain capabilities are developed, and perceived technological, project delivery, and financial risks fall.

In addition, these technical and organisational improvements could accelerate the cost-effective deployment of more advanced nuclear technologies, such as small modular reactors.

The ETI NCD summary report, published in April 2018, was cited as the basis for achievable cost reduction in the UK Nuclear Sector Deal.

The findings also informed the MIT Future of Nuclear Study (2018); the OECD-NEA’s Unlocking Reductions in the Construction Costs of Nuclear: A Practical Guide for Stakeholders (2020), and Energy System Catapult’s Nuclear for Net Zero (2020).