The Senedd Cymru has set the highly ambitious target for Wales to reach Net Zero by 2050. Welsh Government intends to establish Wales as a global leader both in technologies that will power the future, and in global responsibility.

But Wales’ Net Zero ambitions require a re-examination of the infrastructure needed to deliver rapid and effective change, and to ensure Wales’ citizens are not left behind because of infrastructure designed for past needs.

The Welsh Government appointed Energy Systems Catapult, as an independent and trusted body, to develop scenarios of the various paths Wales could take to decarbonise the energy system, drawing on the perspectives of a wide range of people across Wales for the Future Energy Grids for Wales project.

The Catapult used their Energy System Modelling Environment (ESME) to develop future scenarios for a Net Zero Welsh energy system by 2050. These scenarios, including different sensitivities, were supported by a review of existing evidence and engagement with network operators, Ofgem, and the Welsh Government.  There were two baseline whole energy system scenarios developed for Wales called ‘Technology-Optimistic’ and ‘Societally Optimistic’, which each focus respectively on a narrative with success in technology innovation and improved consumer awareness and engagement.

The Future Energy Grids for Wales report found:

Achieving Net Zero requires a fundamental change in how the Welsh energy system is planned, developed, integrated and operated. Carbon Budgets and infrastructure and market lead times, mean many actions are needed soon.

Key changes and impacting factors include:

• Significant network reinforcement will be required across electricity distribution and transmission networks, driven by increases in peak demand and renewables.
• Substantial electrification across heat, transport and industry (annual electricity demand rose by up to 20TWh by 2050 in the scenarios assessed), but there are challenges with meeting peak demands, particularly peak heat –other technology options need to be explored.
• A large increase in renewable deployment in Wales (up to 6.6GW in 2030 and 18.2GW by 2050).
• The scale and production method for hydrogen which has a significant impact on the whole energy system, (e.g. green hydrogen increases electricity demand).

The reports set out 12 recommendations and detail on the implications for energy networks in Wales.

Energy Systems Catapult collaborated with UK Power Networks (UKPN) under Network Innovation Allowance funding to investigate the behaviour of domestic electricity consumers and the distribution network supplying them under a Cold Start scenario in 2030.

With electrification of heating and transport expected to be at far higher level in the next decade, an extended power outage under severe weather conditions would lead to a sudden demand surge to levels far higher than normal peak levels as electrical devices are reactivated.

Using an innovative simulation tool, our Systems Engineering team created dynamic models using a portion of real electricity network to understand the physical impacts of fault conditions on energy assets and appliances within the network under different outage scenarios. A range of metrics were produced, including power flows, voltages, loading and balancing.

The results will allow UKPN to identify:

• Network areas with high risk of adverse effects from power restoration after Cold Start.
• Mitigation measures such as operational policies, network controls, demand-side flexibility and conventional reinforcement.
• Explore novel mitigation methods based on in-home appliance flexibility.

Energy Systems Catapult led both the Energy Data Taskforce (EDTF) and subsequent Energy Digitalisation Taskforce (EDiT), both commissioned by the UK Government, Ofgem and Innovate UK to develop an integrated data and digital strategy to helps unlock the opportunities of a modern, decarbonised and decentralised energy system for the benefit of consumers.

Described as “game-changing” by the ENA, the taskforces engage with hundreds of organisations and kick-started over 50 digital and data projects within two years of beginning.

This included our Digital & Data team working with National Grid (formerly WPD) to help the network operator to improve internal data processes and release more data – resulting in the launch of their Connected Data Portal which now hosts almost 100 open datasets about National Grid’s network infrastructure and operations, including a number of live data sources.

To increase engagement with the newly published data, the Catapult helped to identify some key challenges that could be solved with data and engaged the innovator community through data challenge competitions.

Outcomes of the Presumed Open Data challenge included:

• 365 Registrations for the kick-off event with individuals come from 72 different organisations/institutions, 15 different countries and 30 universities
• 55 teams –  a total of 142 individuals – participated in a least one round
• By the 5th round of tasks, 37 teams survived and and of those 65% outscored the benchmark with the Top 5 teams participating in a special “Value in Energy Data Seminar”
• A number participants publishing their work in peer reviewed academic journals and highlighting our data challenge approach as a useful way to link academic talent with industry need.

The UK Government is exploring the possibility of switching some homes from natural gas to hydrogen to help the country reach net zero carbon emissions.

Wales & West Utilities commissioned Energy Systems Catapult to run a project to understand how to enable this transition to work well for vulnerable consumers, if it is undertaken.

Our Fair Futures team engaged with a series of industry experts and reviewed the available evidence. This helped to understand what a transition of domestic properties from natural gas to hydrogen is likely to entail for consumers, and what steps should be considered to enable the transition to go well.

Once the process was defined, we then engaged with consumers in a variety of vulnerable situations to discuss any challenges the proposed process may present to them. In understanding these challenges, the project then sought to further engage with both a range of experts and vulnerable consumers to co-create appropriate packages of support to preserve wellbeing during a transition to hydrogen.

The Inclusive Innovation: Safeguarding the Switch to Domestic Hydrogen project was able to successfully map out the key consumer touch points during a transition and identify what demands could be placed on consumers.

This enabled appropriate packages of support to be designed that should be considered when seeking to support affected residents during each of the following eventualities – that could occur during a transition to domestic hydrogen.